March 16, 2026
By Rich Davenport
“Sixteen tons, what do you get? Another year older, and deeper in debt.” That lyric line from the chorus of Tennessee Ernie Ford’s 1955 classic song, “Sixteen Tons,” is always a line I recall when the calendar flips to the new year, and this year, it seems the NYSDEC is a bit ahead of the game as compared to recent years’ past, with the release of the deer management permit harvest success rates based on (DMP) allocation and odds to receive a DMP for 2025, by wildlife management unit (WMU), happening on March 15, 2026.
After the conclusion of the last deer hunting season, wildlife biologists and managers huddle together to review the initial harvest estimates to line the numbers up against objectives, in order to start estimating the success of that season against the established goals of population management desires. Using formulas based on established population estimates/ deer density determinations that are set through a mix of science and public desire across multiple stakeholder groups, it gets determined whether the harvest goals are reflecting population management levels set for each WMU. In order to manage deer numbers and related density, a desired harvest of antlered deer per square mile is used, and depending on how close the harvest comes to meeting that objective dictates how many DMP will be issued the following season. If the antlered deer harvest (defined as having a minimum of at least one 3” or greater antler) is significantly below the harvest objective, defined as greater than 10% lower than objective, the population of deer is too low against goals, and fewer DMP will be issued. If the harvest is significantly higher than the objective, the population of deer is too high, and more DMP will be issued to reduce the breeding potential of the localized herd. Harvests within 10% of the objective, either way, illustrates objectives are being met, and DMP issuance remains unchanged.
NY has plenty of whitetail deer on the landscape across most areas of the southern zone of NY. Some areas certainly show lower than desired numbers, while many units have seen population growth, sometimes explosive in nature, demanding higher harvest of antlerless deer to regain control of herds. Gauging the success of hunters filling DMP in any given WMU, helps to inform the number of permits required to be issued to fill the desired number of tags filled upon harvest. This includes tags filled by the hunter who received the DMP, or consigned the DMP to another hunter.
Some interesting data and insight into hunter success, seasonal hunting conditions and attitude can be gleaned from this exercise. For the purpose of this article, we’ll focus strictly on Region 9 WMUs. Below is a view of the estimates for all Region 9 WMUs:
Some pertinent definitions for better understanding of the column data:
DMP Target = Number of DMP desired to be issued to meet management goals
Target DMPs per mi2 = Number of DMP desired to be issued based on square miles of the specific WMU
DEC also offers insight into the odds of receiving a DMP, both as a first and/ or second choice, resident and non-resident – with residents receiving preference over non-residents, which is estimated each season prior to commencing the application period.
Remember, within R9, a couple of WMUs are on the high desire list to reduce antlerless numbers, influencing the establishment of the special September early antlerless-only firearms opportunity within these specific areas. In the case of R9, WMUs 9A and 9F fall into this special additional management effort.
Through examining the estimated success rate, the big game biologists and managers can predictively adjust issuance numbers in the attempt to hit the harvest desires. However, this success rate can also be influenced by variables, with some of these factors as follows:
1 – Access to hunting grounds that hold high number of deer, as although deer density is expressed as a deer per mi2, reality is not every mi2 contains the reported number typically found in the official harvest estimates. That number merely reflects the average density within any given WMU. Factors, such as ample food and water, cover and relative hunting pressure will influence where concentrations are high or lower.
2 – Opportunity to go afield. Many things can influence a hunter’s ability to spend time hunting. This includes weather conditions during the best parts of the big game regular season, the ability to afford how much time is spent afield, fluctuating work responsibilities or family obligations, aka, societal pressures.
3 – Hunter attitudes towards DEC desires and personal embrace or rejection of harvesting an antlerless deer. In other words, personal hunter beliefs and attitudes.
Based on the above information, and seeing that most WMUs in R9, showing mainly high odds in receiving your first selected area for a DMP, with the majority of WMUs showing odds to receive DMP as a 2nd choice rather than first, it is clear population levels are on a growth trajectory, despite efforts to maintain a more stable population growth trend. We’ll let you decide the factors and whatnot concerning why the success rates vary so widely across the region, but one thing seems pretty clear: hunters can reasonably expect DMP issuance to remain high across most of the R9 WMUs in 2026.